Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 34.948963 37.668179 40.640796 44.159310 48.247445 52.895300 58.650070
2025-09-14 30.899915 34.453565 38.588421 43.847173 50.501269 58.859361 70.547462
2025-09-21 28.105097 31.984955 36.676485 42.927358 51.312834 62.644772 80.113847
2025-09-28 25.986689 30.005697 35.001890 41.892868 51.564622 65.437035 88.726430
2025-10-05 25.276275 29.657208 35.275174 43.339762 55.290553 73.773365 108.641052
2025-10-12 24.491146 29.112145 35.191252 44.218150 58.249987 81.526756 130.972011
2025-10-19 23.667773 28.433294 34.835944 44.619066 60.475491 88.530424 155.691741
2025-10-26 22.814832 27.643783 34.243729 44.570594 61.917174 94.431394 181.929404
2025-11-02 21.843859 26.627434 33.245485 43.779857 61.948940 97.548804 203.166478
2025-11-09 20.923479 25.629139 32.203629 42.816171 61.526488 99.606293 223.187222
2025-11-16 20.161963 24.814187 31.377446 42.121170 61.490405 102.510005 249.771259
2025-11-23 19.472509 24.067912 30.607835 41.450285 61.404399 105.288852 280.040002
2025-11-30 19.218901 23.946949 30.788600 42.413712 64.699061 117.689465 387.129925
2025-12-07 18.674750 23.380562 30.258047 42.119572 65.441861 123.792946 481.956415
2025-12-14 18.041098 22.655870 29.443100 41.261645 64.887085 126.058383 559.810361
2025-12-21 17.426696 21.936195 28.601520 40.295738 63.982848 127.052741 636.817024
2025-12-28 17.366301 22.030551 29.038062 41.646373 68.359537 146.967387 1330.282668
2026-01-04 17.192250 21.944797 29.178943 42.465191 71.699299 165.853284 4273.673768
2026-01-11 16.938136 21.725843 29.089431 42.838636 74.049744 182.873462 NaN
2026-01-18 16.618568 21.393996 28.796402 42.793495 75.349160 196.522354 NaN
2026-01-25 16.187930 20.876969 28.173475 42.056729 74.743954 200.618080 NaN
2026-02-01 15.749043 20.334937 27.489079 41.157885 73.603405 201.481346 NaN
2026-02-08 15.376529 19.885893 26.945053 40.509007 73.069397 205.666360 NaN